OUR GAP ANALYSIS EXAMINES semiconductor growth rates relative to end-market consumption based on indexed, quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year growth rates.
While any gap analysis has shortcomings, we view it as a useful albeit somewhat limited tool for gauging cycle dynamics. Included in our report is a company-by-company, end-market-by-end-market view of over- and undershipments, which should aid in finding alpha [outperformance].
The gap analysis supports our view that cycle risks are skewed meaningfully to end consumption and not supply. While the gap between semi shipments and end-demand has closed from a peak of 21.9 points in first-quarter 2009 to 6.3 points in first-quarter 2010, our data suggest that semis continue to undership end-demand
and without an above-seasonal second half are likely to undership throughout all of 2010.
By company from best to worse: National Semiconductor (NSM), Intersil (ISIL), Fairchild Semiconductor International (FCS) and Intel
(INTC) screen well.
Disclosure: The Div Guy owns shares of INTC at the time of this post.
5 comments:
I was looking over your goals and I noticed that you want to make 40000 in dividend income with 2 M in equity by 2023, but right now you are close to 1 M and only making about 6000, how would 2 M make almost triple in dividend income? Something doesnt jive, I think it would take almost 3 or 4 M to make 40,000 in div income - how are your goals planned?
Are you part of the super inflation crowd or the deflation crowd (in terms of the future economy)?
EN,
My dividend income from my stock portfolio was over 10K before the recent downturn. Getting to 40K is going to be more difficult. I calulated the 40K based on the old 10K of income and included dividend increases and increased investment in dividend stocks. At the end of this year I will come up with a new more realistic goal.
MM,
I am looking for slow growth. I am hoping companies that have built up cash will look to spend some money and help improve the economy. I looks like it will take a while before consumer spending improves much.
EN, Div Guy,
I would think that you could average almost 4% dividend yield with a good mix of companies.
$2m would almost generate $80k.
3%,-IMO- a cakewalk, would generate $60k
Ed,
The 40K I am talking about is just from my dividend stocks and not from the rest of my portfolio. I would like to use the dividends at retirement to cover most of my basic expenses.
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